The big headline today is the fact that a measly 6% of Australians support war in Iraq without UN support. More telling is the fact that almost one in three Australians are totally opposed to war in Iraq, even if the UN gives the okay. Here are the results broken down by political affiliation — pretty much as you would expect [popup image].
It is also interesting to see how US and UK citizens see the issue:
The poll indicates that unilateral action against Iraq is even less popular in Australia than it is among Americans or Britons.
A British poll published this week suggested 13 per cent of Britons supported an attack regardless of UN support; a similar survey in the US yielded about one-third of respondents in favour of an attack.
Given that the UK and Australia are the two nations that Bush is counting on to offer some legitimacy to any attack outside the UN’s mandate (an ad hoc alliance that would be used to pretend the attack was multilateral), it is no doubt worrying for the hawks that there is overwhelming public opposition in those countries.
Of course, different results might be expected after the weapons inspectors in Iraq discovered about a dozen empty warheads that Iraq can’t quite explain. Obviously we’re going to have to wait a while before we reach a judgment on this one — it’s an obvious balls-up by Saddam, but it might be more innocent than it appears. Yeah, I know — “Honey, please… I can explain… it’s not how it looks…” sounds pretty lame when we’re talking about chemical weapons, but the US and Britain have misrepresented aluminium tubing that Iraq attempted to procure, alleging that it was specifically for use in a centrifuge despite evidence to the contrary.
Indeed, General Imam’s statements, that “They are just artillery rockets imported in 1986. Therefore they are expired, they cannot be used, since a long time ago, not now, at least (since) seven years or maybe ten years they were expired, not now” and that these types of rockets “were declared … to the UNSCOM in 1996 and … declared again” more recently, appear to be supported by a quick google.
In September 1991, the UNSCOM supervised the destruction of all empty chemical ammunitions at Al-Muthana Establishment which included 12,500 pieces of artillery ammunitions and aerial bombs. In February 1992, the UNSCOM destroyed the chemical ammunitions at Al-Khamissiya area which included 400 (122mm) rockets filled with Sarin. From June 1992 to June 1994, the UNSCOM destroyed the empty and filled ammunitions, the production equipment, production sites, stores, liquid and solid materials at Al-Muthana Establishment which included 690 tons of the produced final agents and 38500 ammunition pieces, filled and empty, liquid amounted to 1,800 000 litres, solid intermediate materials, amounted to 1000 tons as well as 150 production equipment and four production sites and stores.
Given that UNSCOM destroyed over 400 of these rockets, along with payloads and production equipment, the discovery of a dozen empty rockets does not necessarily mean much. It really could be nothing more than an Iraqi bureaucratic bungle, albeit with severe consequences.
We’ll have to wait until the inspectors test chemical samples they have taken, and make further investigations, before we’ll know anything for sure. Thankfully, the overwhelming public opposition to a US-led war might slow things down enough for a rational evaluation of the evidence — though nothing can be certain.
UPDATE [4:55pm]: It looks like the US are going to let the inspectors continue their work for a while. This is sensible — if the rockets really do represent something sinister, the inspectors now know what they’re looking for and will presumably make further discoveries quickly. If not, then this discovery will be added to a list of similarly insignificant breaches — something that, in the absence of a “smoking gun” (I believe that’s what the cool kids are saying these days), will put the US under pressure to show they’re not just clutching at straws.