A fork in the road
After my previous hopeful post about Iraq’s future, I had intended to follow up by arguing against James Russell’s comment that:
What I’ve always feared, of course, in the whole Iraq bullshit is that a dictator is exactly what they’ll finally end up with. Given that there’s been talk of the new Iraq government imposing martial law, they may indeed get one.
I was going to say that while I shared his fear, the imposition of martial law is not really the Iraq government’s choice: any nation facing the severe security risks that currently afflict Iraq would do the same.
But that was before I saw Lateline’s interview with Tariq Ali and (more particularly) Daniel Pipes:
I supported the war and I support the attempt to make Iraq into a modern and decent country but I think my Government, the US Government, went too far in looking to create a democratic new Iraq.
I don’t think that’s possible.
What is possible is an Iraq that is ruled by someone with a strong arm for some years who will over time move towards democracy.
So Pipes thinks the best we can hope for is a new dictator, who will of course gradually remove himself from power. Yeah, right.
And this is somehow compatable with the notion that “Iraqis ultimately are responsible for themselves” — it’s just that we can’t trust them to, you know, vote and stuff.
I realise that Pipes does not represent the official US view, but he certainly had a great deal to do with getting us into the war in the first place, and no doubt still has influence in the Bush administration.
Sadly, things appear to be heading in the direction I feared in my first post about Iraq, way back in January 2003. I hope I’m proven wrong.
The way I see it, the U.S. will do what it’s always done. It will overtly or covertly destroy any democratically elected govermnent which is not pro-U.S. (in this case, pro-U.S. oil flow) and in its place, it will install any puppet “strong-man” who will do their bidding. The “insurgents” have exactly the opposite attitude so we will continue to live in interesting times…
I’ve been thinking about this. What happens when they get the elections happening again and the candidates aren’t to the US’ liking? Whether they be Islamic hardliners or scary quasi-communists, will the US be able to stay out of it? Or maybe they’ll pump funds and influence into their preferred candidate.
Yes, it was an interesting interview Robert. The ‘democratic paradox’ was another interesting insight.
If I was a neo-con, I would be pissed at how shoddy Pipes was. A very poor effort. He was honest when it was inconvenient to be, and then lied outrageously about the US having an alliance with Saddam in the eighties. He should have admitted to the alliance and lied about the democratic paradox. Tut tut.
But will the new Iraqi adminisration find the huge pits full of WMD warheads?
Don’t you know, Tony, that since neither the WMDs or the Republican Guard Divisions were found, then neither of them could have existed? Not even Saddam knew this, which is why he acted as if he had both.