Newspoll: 50/50
Don’t listen to the Westpoll (nobody else does) — there’s no Coalition landslide.
In December, Newspoll reported that 37% of electors would give their first preference to Labor. Last weekend, the figure was 42%. The Coalition fell from 49% to 44% in the same period. On a two-party preferred basis, there has been a 6% swing to Labor, and it’s now a dead heat at 50/50.
Importantly, the poll shows a lift in Labor’s primary vote, the supposedly low level of which was the reason for various doom-and-gloom predictions around the traps.
Sol Lebovic says the swing is not really 6%, because the previous Newspoll was an aberration due to “a lot of federal implications coming though, which muddied the waters.” I think he’s right. Morgan’s December figures showed a fall in support but nothing like that of Newspoll. Perhaps their face-to-face approach means people are less distracted when they respond?
So now that we’ve got a reasonable poll, we know that Labor is still the underdog, but it’s early days yet.
Nice set of figures :-)
According to the online poll at http://www.6pr.com.au
Poll Results
Who will you vote for on February 26th ?
Geoff Gallop and the ALP: 55%
Colin Barnett and the LIbs: 36%
Other: 7%
Total number of votes: 592
Mind you yiu have to vote every day to see results, so that figure has been inflated by me a bit) :-) but basically it shows that we’re in with a chance.
I think Barnett going to bed with the nurses and his rubbery figures re Stamp duty hasn’t helped, as has the TOTAL lack of direct mail from the libs – not even a enrolment application form, as the ALP did a Howard and had them, plus local law and order flyer in the letterboxes on the weekend the Election was called, as well as on Monday Morning.
I also believe Barnett’s public persona isn’t winning people over, despite what The West and The Sunday Crimes try and throw at us :-)
Anyway, The Leader’s debate will be interesting on Wednesday when we see Barnett being put under pressure.
Oh and I forgot to add what The West will make of this poll :-)
I can hear Paul Armstrong handing over to Pattersons the West’s Staff list plus the Liberal Party Membership list so he can do another “poll” :-)
We at the east read all about this ‘Beazley Factor’. Is it fact or fiction in Western Australia?
It mightn’t be so much a Beazley factor, so much as a “having a federal leader who is well and about to talk” factor. Then again having a local boy can’t hurt. So Guido, it is probably a little column A and little from column B.
Beazley is very popular here in WA. Yesterday the West tried to scrape up some negativity by asking people about his new second home in Sydney. Unfortunately, even those who said they would prefer him to be based in WA said they still thought he would represent them well.
Beazley is regarded as a silver spoon socialist. He’s not that popular. Especially after abandoning Swan for the safer seat of Brand.
The Bomber should just suggest the property in Sydney is just an investment.
They are a sensitive lot at the west and for that matter quite a few West Aussies are as well,i reguard the West as being on a par with the Murdock mouthpeice in Sydney The Telegraph i am never sure which is worse,that was untill i saw the Sundry Slimes which is the only time i have paid 2 30 for advertising,the paper is totaly devoid of news apart from sport and Cricket and AFL i have no interest in whasoever,Perth is unfortunatly very ill served in the newspaper line at least when i was living in QLD i could get hold of the SMH on saturday morning and during the week if i so wished i read it online otherwise,as for talkback gawd what a load of rubbish the ABC gentleman raved on about late trading saying we should go back to 12 pm Sat closing what next no women in the workforce, the commerical gentlemen one of whom tried to be a big fish in a big pond but fell flat on his arse the other thinks he god and all should come when called odd lot, anyway thats me here comes me bus thanks for allowing the rave
Labor is not the underdog by any stretch of the imagination. There have been no major scandals, and employment is up. The Liberals are extremely unlikely to get in.