It’s time for Costello to shuffle off
The Liberal Party’s leadership stoush is under way, kicked off by John Howard’s comment in Athens that he is prepared to take on Kim Beazley at the next election. Some have tried to argue that Howard simply misspoke, but that’s just not plausible. His line is now so well rehearsed that even I know it by heart: “I will remain Prime Minister for as long as the Liberal Party and the Australian people want me.”
Over at Larvatus Prodeo, I suggested that Howard’s comments ought not to be seen as a signal of his intention to stay in the job. Instead, they are a signal to Costello’s opponents that there is no Kirribili agreement, and that they should work out who they’d like to leapfrog Costello into the top job.
It’s a theme that was elaborated upon by Greg Barns in the Courier Mail yesterday:
Howard and Costello … have been a political pairing now for about the same period as Hawke and Keating but while Howard is a deeply committed and conservative warrior – both cultural and ideological – who is determined to remake Australia in his own conservative image, Costello has been prepared to embrace a more progressive agenda from time to time.
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Given these ideological gaps between Costello and Howard, the question needs to be asked: does Howard want Costello to become Australia’s prime minister at all?
Is Howard, knowing full well that his party will continue to support him while he looks like having Labor’s measure, hoping that Costello spits the dummy and exits politics some time after next week’s Budget?
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Downer and Abbott, both unashamed conservatives, no doubt view themselves as the praetorian guards of the Howard legacy. Nelson’s opportunist rhetoric makes him hard to pin down, but it’s fair to say that the socially progressive image he cultivated when he ran the Australian Medical Association has long vanished.
Howard appears to have finally broken the gossamer thread that united him and Costello. In doing so, he appears to be opening the Liberal Party’s leadership race, when it does happen, to all comers.
Tony Abbott has certainly taken the hint, telling Costello that “the team” (read: Howard) will decide what happens.
Costello, on the other hand, is desperately arguing for a “smooth transition“. This means nothing except that he does not have the numbers to roll Howard, and is not confident that he will ever achieve them. He expects Howard to hand him the job, despite the fact that he is not supported by the majority of his caucus.
It’s not going to happen, and if Costello is serious about his beliefs (rather than his ambition) he should throw his weight behind a new leadership candidate.
As much as it irks me to say this, I’m really rooting for Costello here with respect to the other options on the table. Abbott and Downer don’t bear thinking about, it’s too frightening.
Abbot scares the shit out of most Aussies I feel and Downer …well, Downer just annoys most Australians with only a limited familiarity with 24 hour room service.
Nelson is undoubtedly the darkhorse but another scenario worth putting forward is that IF the Libs lose the next election, look for a newly promoted Malcolm Turnbull to sleaze his way through the shadow ministery to within shooting distance of PM around 2010.
Trackback.
Well, Costello was never going to get the job handed to him, Howard would just be throwing his support behind him, and then his supporters would vote for Costello.
I think it’s much too early to say that Howard isn’t going to support Costello. Its certainly a possibility but I wouldnt say its anywhere near a certainty. The thing that is certain, is that there will be no stoush – at least not until Howard retires.
Hah! Nic White is acknowledging the obvious! The StoushTM is on!
Yep, and to quote cs, “Goodnight Smirker”. Costello is cactussed.
lol Liam, how does that make me support StoushTM? I was saying there would be no challenge from Costello, which was my point in saying there will be no stoush – I never said anything about the fallout from Howards retirement.
The present situation will quickly blow over.
And then what, Nic? Costello’ll happily go on being Treasurer forever?
I’ve seen all of them to greater and lesser degrees spruiking, in the flesh, at worthy lunches , dinners and breakfasts.
I vote for none of them.
But let me tell you.
Costello is the most charasmatic, the most honest, the most small “l” Lib and the best.
He also comes across the worst on TV.
Abbott is just a cold eyed sociopath. Nelson is not too bad. Dolly used to be ok but….
I’ll be backing Costello and putting money on Howard.
Nic, your comments betray a lack of understanding of the democratic process (or else a stubborn refusal to admit you were wrong).
The word “stoush” doesn’t mean a leadership ballot. It refers to the sheep-trading and backstabbing that goes on before a leadership challenge. It makes no difference whether Costello actually moves for a spill, because nine times out of ten the fight’s over by that stage anyway. If Costello doesn’t challenge, it’s because he’s already lost the stoush. Whether he runs or not, the stoush is on now.
I’m not sure if Nelson’s enough of a hard nut to carve himself a power base, but he’s certainly the most palatable option for the liberal Liberals who have been increasingly snowed out or co-opted by Howard.
And I’m not sure if Turnbull will be any good, given the way he stuffed up the Republic thing.
I’d say that Howard isn’t so much of a “committed and conservative warrior” that he’d stop thinking about his own political glory long enough to plan the Liberal succession for the next 20 years. When he says he’d like to think he could beat Kim a third time, I think he means exactly that. He just likes winning too much, man. Robert, I think you’re giving Howard more Machiavellian credit than he’s necessarily due. In a way I think this is indicative of the way that pundits tend to overestimate Howard on key occasions. Then again I’m not a pundit. What do you pundits say? Pundit.
In agreement with Nic here, Costello isn’t locked out of the Prime Ministership just by virtue of a single interview. Costello has got to do the work to convince the public, but more importantly his own party that he can win. And whilst I think the consensus that Costello’s inherently unsellable is stale and easy, I’d also have to say that he isn’t working overly hard to make it happen. And that’s ’cause he’s gutless. He’d never take a shot unless he had the ironclad confidence that he would have the numbers. He wouldn’t risk failure that way, and even if he did and failed nonetheless, he’d never get up for a second shot.
As for the others, I don’t think any of them could win an election. Try and visualise it: Abbott? If Costello’s untelegenic, give me a good reason why the Liberal’s Porky Pig would have a better chance at winning a poll. Of any kind. Downer: as with Abbott except with mincing and a history of not cutting it. Nelson, maybe, but in such unremarkable company no wonder everyone’s calling a class of ‘96 ex-bleeding heart the ‘dark horse’ in the Liberal leadership dealey.
I’m not a huge political insider or pundit (pundit) or nothin’. Please let me know if you think I totally don’t have my finger on the pulse.
I don’t think you’re giving Howard enough credit, Vince. If anyone knows how leadership contests work, it’s him. He has serious ideological, geographical, and by most accounts personal problems with Costello, and he would therefore prefer somebody else takes over.
I suspect that quite a few Howard supporters, chuffed with the election victory, have settled in to watch him do his thing for the next few years. That’s reason enough for him to remind them that Costello has his eyes on the top job — they need to be ready to fight a challenge, and they need to sort out who will be their candidate. Howard certainly has a view as to who that should be.
I don’t think Costello is locked out of the leadership, but his comments indicate that he’s pushing shit up hill, and he knows it. He’d prefer to be handed the job on a plate (and yes, Nic, I know that means he’s looking for Howard’s endorsement. What tremendous insight!) but he’s not going to get it. I don’t think he’s ever going to get the numbers, which means his best bet, like Howard’s, is to line up behind a candidate from the next generation.
Of course, he won’t do that. He’ll either spill the leadership (because fuck it, he’s come this far and why stop now) or bow out; either way Howard’s man will win.
But Rob, I think the whole thing, the situation as it is, is going to blow over very quickly, even behind the scenes. It won’t be until Howard decides to retire that it will flare up again. The stoush won’t be on until Howard gives that timetable.
Either way the Stoush™ is on. If Howard decides to retire it’ll be Costello vs. Abbott and Nelson. If, as I suspect, Howard doesn’t ever decide to retire, and just hangs about like the smell of the guy at the back of the bus, Costello has to keep pushing, or surrender to somebody else.
Why should the Stoush™ blow over?
Nic, the only way this is going to blow over is when Howard is toppled by Costello (unlikely) or Costello retires altogether.
The simple fact is that even when you are in power (as a government, or leader) you must always keep on campaigning to simply maintain your position, let alone advance it.
Howard (and Costello) would be an idiot if he (they) let this die. Offence is the best defence, and Howard has just landed an almost knockout blow. Costello needs to attack quickly (ie, Stouch Time) or else he’ll be necked by a Howard supporter looking for the Treasurer’s chair.
Goddamnit, Alex, it’s a Stoush™!
What the hell is a Stouch? Hav e IKEA gotten all unimaginative with their catalogue?
lol stouch
If we are still hearing about this in 2 weeks time (from the pollies, not op/ed ramblings), you get I Told You So rights. I think it will be well over by that time. When Howard says hes going to retire, then from that moment the stoush is on, IMO. I dont think that will happen this year, perhaps early next year if hes not going to contest the next election (he better damn well wait til Im home from overseas so I can blog it).
We always end up arguing definitions dont we Liam? :P
Anyway, Ive made bet on the 2 weeks.
Goddamn convicts.