If we are still hearing about this in 2 weeks time (from the pollies, not op/ed ramblings), you get I Told You So rights. I think it will be well over by that time. When Howard says hes going to retire, then from that moment the stoush is on, IMO. I dont think that will happen this year, perhaps early next year if hes not going to contest the next election (he better damn well wait til Im home from overseas so I can blog it).

We always end up arguing definitions dont we Liam? :P
Anyway, Ive made bet on the 2 weeks.

The simple fact is that even when you are in power (as a government, or leader) you must always keep on campaigning to simply maintain your position, let alone advance it.

Howard (and Costello) would be an idiot if he (they) let this die. Offence is the best defence, and Howard has just landed an almost knockout blow. Costello needs to attack quickly (ie, Stouch Time) or else he’ll be necked by a Howard supporter looking for the Treasurer’s chair.

I suspect that quite a few Howard supporters, chuffed with the election victory, have settled in to watch him do his thing for the next few years. That’s reason enough for him to remind them that Costello has his eyes on the top job — they need to be ready to fight a challenge, and they need to sort out who will be their candidate. Howard certainly has a view as to who that should be.

I don’t think Costello is locked out of the leadership, but his comments indicate that he’s pushing shit up hill, and he knows it. He’d prefer to be handed the job on a plate (and yes, Nic, I know that means he’s looking for Howard’s endorsement. What tremendous insight!) but he’s not going to get it. I don’t think he’s ever going to get the numbers, which means his best bet, like Howard’s, is to line up behind a candidate from the next generation.

Of course, he won’t do that. He’ll either spill the leadership (because fuck it, he’s come this far and why stop now) or bow out; either way Howard’s man will win.

In agreement with Nic here, Costello isn’t locked out of the Prime Ministership just by virtue of a single interview. Costello has got to do the work to convince the public, but more importantly his own party that he can win. And whilst I think the consensus that Costello’s inherently unsellable is stale and easy, I’d also have to say that he isn’t working overly hard to make it happen. And that’s ’cause he’s gutless. He’d never take a shot unless he had the ironclad confidence that he would have the numbers. He wouldn’t risk failure that way, and even if he did and failed nonetheless, he’d never get up for a second shot.

As for the others, I don’t think any of them could win an election. Try and visualise it: Abbott? If Costello’s untelegenic, give me a good reason why the Liberal’s Porky Pig would have a better chance at winning a poll. Of any kind. Downer: as with Abbott except with mincing and a history of not cutting it. Nelson, maybe, but in such unremarkable company no wonder everyone’s calling a class of ‘96 ex-bleeding heart the ‘dark horse’ in the Liberal leadership dealey.

I’m not a huge political insider or pundit (pundit) or nothin’. Please let me know if you think I totally don’t have my finger on the pulse.

And I’m not sure if Turnbull will be any good, given the way he stuffed up the Republic thing.

The word “stoush” doesn’t mean a leadership ballot. It refers to the sheep-trading and backstabbing that goes on before a leadership challenge. It makes no difference whether Costello actually moves for a spill, because nine times out of ten the fight’s over by that stage anyway. If Costello doesn’t challenge, it’s because he’s already lost the stoush. Whether he runs or not, the stoush is on now.