Pushing shit up hill
Costello’s supporters have revealed their plan of attack, as reported in the Sydney Morning Herald:
To exploit the tactical advantage, Costello and his forces are setting out to generate a wave of pressure designed to create a sense of inevitability about a Costello challenge for the leadership.
They hope that this pressure will oblige Howard to make a bloodless surrender.
But if not, they hope that it will lead to a bandwagon effect, where an increasing number of party MPs join the apparently unstoppable movement of youth against age.
To exploit the moral advantage, Costello is building the case that it is Howard, by clinging to power beyond a reasonable retirement date, who is the wrecker of the party, not he, the challenger.
A successful Costello challenge might remain a technical possibility — there’s still a faint glimmer of hope — but I don’t think he’ll get there.
He’s relying on “a sense of inevitability” about his succession. That won’t cut it. People might see that Howard’s retirement is inevitable, or that generational change is inevitable (and desirable), but there’s no reason to think they’ll automatically jump on Costello’s bandwagon.
It’s even less likely to happen if Howard detects a shift in allegiances, because then he’ll personally involve himself in the campaign against Costello. And you can bet that Abbott, Nelson and others are already arguing that there is no such thing as a leadership inheritance.
Costello is pushing shit up hill, and he’s going to make one heck of a mess.
